Oil-Producing Countries’ Currencies Are Getting Crushed
While most people’s attention has been focused on the demise of the Russian Ruble this year, since the June highs in Crude Oil, the oil-producing nations of the world have seen their currencies devalue rapidly. From Brazil to Nigeria and Algeria, the impact of lower oil revenues is starting to create a vicious circle for many of these nations… and having consequences for the very Petrodollar flows that the US relies upon…
Mission Accomplished – if the goal was crashing Russia’s Ruble – but the consequences of the collapsing Petrodollar flows (as we noted here) may wellcome back to bite…
- The stronger US dollar is having an inverse impact on dollar-denominated commodity prices, including oil. This will affect emerging market (EM) credit quality in various ways.
- The implications of reduced recycled petrodollars has significant ramifications for financial markets, loan markets and Treasury yields. In fact, EM energy exporters will post their first net drain on global capital (USD8bn) in eighteen years.
- Oil and gas exporting EMs account for 26% of total EM GDP and 21% of external bonds. For these economies, the impact will be on lost fiscal revenue, lost GDP growth and the contribution to reserves of oil and gas-related export receipts. Together, these will have a significant effect on sustainability and liquidity ratios and as a consequence are negative for dollar debt-servicing risks and credit ratings.
In other words, oil exporters are now pulling liquidity out of financial markets rather than putting money in. That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer.